Thoughts
Thoughts are evolving thoughts or opinions, and may or may not be fully accruate. The intention is to checkpoint how I think about a particular idea over time an share my viewpoints.
On Newborn Parenting
Photo by Kelly Sikkema (Unsplash)
We recently added a beautiful baby girl to our family, and it’s been a wild ride. Since tech workers are a fairly new phenomenon, I suspect that a majority of tech workers are now currently in the same life stage. As this happens, I suspect that tech companies will change how work is done, now that more and more of the workforce leaves their 20s and moves into their 30s.
How the 2008 Financial Crisis Still Affects Us
I had recently stumbled upon this video that stitches together the great recession of 2008 to the crisis we are experiencing now. It’s a great video, and I recommend watching it in its entirety.
One thing I found super fun to build was a map of the root causes and effects stemming from 20 years ago all the way to today, and I wanted to share it here in case it helps anyone make sense of the mess.
Decision Reversibility
You can always make fast decisions if decisions are reversible. Don’t get caught up in analysis paralysis when you could have committed and reverted in the same amount of time.
The Map is not the Territory
The map is not the territory; seek ground truth whenever possible to accelerate learning.
uberHOP is a little example from my experience. The product was a point-to-point (a.k.a UV express) service Uber launched in Manila, along with Seattle and Toronto.
The way it worked was simple: you would make a request to take a specific route during peak hours, and we would batch you in with up to 6 people to take a high occupancy vehicle along the route.
uberHOP needed high occupancy to become profitable
The pricing was at a 70% discount to uberX (the traditional ride product), and drivers were guaranteed earnings, so there was a minimum average occupancy needed to hit profitability. To get to that high occupancy, we needed to ensure that the routes selected were of high quality.
Initial approach: Clustering!
My first instinct as a data person was [[clustering]]. We needed to find pairs of longitude and latitude that had enough pickup and dropoff density in them to have a decent chance of becoming profitable.
The launch routes were selected using this method, but we had limited success, even after a novelty period, cancellation rates remained high. I tried different algorithms, distance metrics, using various map features, dispatch radiuses, all for very incremental gains.
We used clustering to find initial approaches, but the results were not as expected.
Seeking ground truth
What did help was to actually seek ground truth, and the solution was embarrassingly obvious.
When we physically went to the most successful route’s pickup, the two key factors were: (a) high density residential buildings (as opposed to commercial), and (b) a driveway so drivers weren’t a moving target.
SM Light Residences was a great pickup that embodied all the factors that were required for a good pickup
We were able to turn the product profitable in a few weeks! This was easy to do because I was physically located in the market. However, this is a perennial challenge for distributed teams, so it’s even more important to consciously seek ground truth in those situations.
Here’s an abridged version in Twitter thread form:
The map is not the territory; seek ground truth whenever possible to accelerate learning. 🧵
— TJ Palanca (@tjpalanca) September 17, 2021
Here's a little example from my experience: uberHOP was a point-to-point (a.k.a UV express) service we launched in Manila. We needed high occupancy so route selection was critical. pic.twitter.com/dfGdDlfE1j
aliases: - content/thoughts/2021-09-18-the-map-is-not-the-territory/the-map-is-not-the-territory.html - posts/2021-09-18-the-map-is-not-the-territory - thoughts/the-map-is-not-the-territory
Dealing with model uncertainty in data products
On Scientific Studies, P-Hacking, and Media Irresponsibility
John Oliver takes a comedic stab at how science is portrayed in mainstream media. In the interest of presenting a simple soundbite, things like sample size, caveats, and other potential sources of bias are left out. Problems with p-hacking, lack of replication, and publish or perish are also discussed.
You can find his other videos on his YouTube channel.
aliases: - 2016/05/on-scientific-studies-p-hacking-and-media-irresponsibility.html - content/thoughts/2016-05-22-on-scientific-studies-p-hacking-and-media-irresponsibility/on-scientific-studies-p-hacking-and-media-irresponsibility.html - posts/2016-05-22-on-scientific-studies-p-hacking-and-media-irresponsibility - thoughts/on-scientific-studies-p-hacking-and-media-irresponsibility
On the Best Webcomics for your Inner Nerd
SATISFY YOUR INNER NERD - If you’re looking for a place to get laughs, there are various free webcomics that can cater to your inner egghead (don’t kid yourself - everyone has one), so here are six webcomics that can start you off, and how to subscribe to them.
Don’t pretend it’s not funny