Articles
An article is a finished piece of work, likely the result of a data analysis or a viewpoint that's gone through multiple iterations of feedback and refinement. It's intended to be the traditional blog post.
On Hot Hands and Shooting Streaks: Does "momentum" in basketball really exist?
Update (2018-04-15)
We recently discovered more evidence in support of the hot hand and also assailing the 1985 paper featured in this article due to lack of statistical power. See here for a digestible piece of analysis.
Basketball fans and players alike will attest to the ‘hot hand’ phenomenon, where the chances or a player making the shot are much higher following a series of successful shots than the chances following a miss. In this article, we feature a journal article that debunks this phenomenon as merely a figment of fans' imaginations.
The Hot Hand Hypothesis. Many basketball fans believe that there are periods during a game when a player has ‘hot hands’, but does it hold up under statistical rigor? (Photo: ryan_fung/Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0)
On Trains and Tribulations - The LRT South Extension and Fare Hikes
The Light Rail Transit Line 1 South Extension Project is now out for bidding, with the contract to be awarded in the second quarter of this year. The rail system is under intense public scrutiny amidst talks of fare hikes, but as in most cases, a look at the data can lend some meaningful context to these debates: fare hikes, capacity constraints, and South Extension feasibility.
It’s a fact of life in Manila that you won’t really know when you’ll arrive at your destination, resulting from intolerable congestion and poor public transport, a problem that has gained political traction in recent years. In this photo, an LRT-1 train arrives at Blumentritt station. (Photo: public domain/Wikipedia)
On Holiday Weight Gain and New Years' Resolutions
Holiday weight gain - can you beat it? (Photo: WickerFurniture/Flickr, CC BY 2.0)
Now that the holidays are over and a new year has started, it’s time to take stock of the weight we have gained, and to decide how to stick to our recurring new year’s resolution of getting that Bora body in time for summer. To help with that, let’s take a look at holiday weight gain data and listen to a podcast on commitment devices - self-imposed punishments that keep you focused on the goal.
Everyone gains weight anyway, right?
As utterly trivial as it may seem, holiday weight gain is something well-studied by medical journals. Here’s a quick summary of the weight gain findings of various studies, normalized to a period of 30 days. The bars indicate the range between minimum and maximum findings.
The studies are ordered by decreasing sample size, as we can rely more on evidence that is generated from larger samples. Still, the results are very diverse, estimates range from a measly 0.1kg to a whopping 2.2kg. If you’ve kept tabs on the scale and it’s within this amount, then you can take comfort in the fact that most other people will be experiencing this weight gain, too.
Battle of the bulge: one step forward, two steps back
However, there is little solace in remaining within the ‘normal’ range, as a study by Yanovski, et. al. found that weight gained in the preholiday season (October and November) and holiday season (December) is not lost in the following ‘postholiday’ period, so the fat gained during the holdays is probably a major contributor to the weight gain during a person’s lifetime. Here’s a projection over 5 years that I’ve constructed using data from the study:
The green area indicates probable weight gain tracks, while the red line is the mean or the most likely weight gain. At the end of 5 years, your weight will probably have increased by 0.5 to 4 kg. Your goal, of course, is to be an outlier - on the negative side, that is.
There is another motivation for staying on top of your weight as early as possible, though - the same study has observed that overweight and obese persons are much more likely to experience ‘major’ holiday weight gain in excess of 2.3kg, as follows:
Only 5% of non-overweight individuals experienced major weight gain, while it was 10% and 18% for overweight and obese individuals, respectively. It’s a slippery slope, and once you pop, it’s hard to stop!
Secure your new years' resolution with a commitment device
Most of us will probably want to overcome the trend and lose all the holiday weight before summer, and made it our new years' resolution. Sadly, most of these resolutions will be broken after a few trips to the gym or a few weeks on a diet, but you can control the actions of your future self with what’s called a commitment device. For example, as Steven Levitt describes it:
LEVITT: If you’ve ever had really bad canker sores, or kind of cut your gums, it’s so unpleasant. So why not just slice up your gums a little bit, you know, cut up your mouth so you just don’t feel like eating at all? I think that would be a great diet approach. But people say, “No, no, no too violent, I couldn’t cut myself.” One thing I know would work is just take a little can, like say a baby food jar, and fill it with vomit. And wear it around your neck. And every time you decide that you’re hungry just open the jar and take a little sniff. And I guarantee you you will lose weight, guaranteed
Well, it’s not that bad, of course! It can be as simple as giving a friend a sum of money to be donated away upon failure. I could go on, but you would be better served by listening to one of my favorite Freakonomics podcasts.
Have a great new, year, folks! If you found this post interesting, a share or comment would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!
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On Christmas in the Philippines
The Ayala Triangle light show in Makati City is just one example of how Filipinos celebrate the holidays. (Photo by kamaraderie/Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0)
The Philippines seems to be having its fair share of the international limelight nowadays - including with regard to how Filipinos celebrate Christmas. We like to use data to see things from a new perspective here, so let’s take a look at how the numbers celebrate the holidays as well!
On Philippine Foreign Trade: USA vs China
The world is in the middle of an epic struggle for political influence between the USA and China, but what does this mean for Filipinos, who are trapped in the middle, both in the geographic and political sense? We can take a look at the data on one of the avenues of influence, foreign trade, and find out a little bit more.
GOLD VS GLORY - There is a legitimate debate as to whether economic or military power is more relevant in the long-run. In this photo, the USS Washington enters the Manila bay for a 2010 port visit. Flickr/US Navy Official Imagery, CC BY 2.0)
The conflict between East and West is heating up - US bombers defy the Chinese Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the East China Sea, and US and China Naval Vessels almost collide with each other in the West Philippine Sea.
All this leads me to think how this will impact the Philippines, a tiny country literally and figuratively caught in the middle. Situated in the Pacific Ocean, the island nation has always aligned itself with US interests, but recent developments over the past few years have resulted to Philippine officials taking a more measured approach to Chinese foreign policy.
On the Effectiveness of Sin Taxes in the Philippines (2013 Q3 Update)
UPDATE (Sept 16 2014)
This post has been updated with 2014 Q2 data.
How are the new sin taxes faring in the 3rd quarter after their implementation? The numbers say - pretty good. (Photo: Fried Dough/Flickr, CC BY 2.0, cropped)
SIN TAXED - How effective are higher sin taxes at reducing alcohol and tobacco consumption? Some say it’s a ‘tax on the poor’ and it would only lead to downshifting to cheaper, more dangerous brands, others are all for it, armed with the basic principle of demand. Newly released 3rd quarter national accounts can shed light on the situation.
This is an update of a previous post I made a few months back to incorporate the new Q3 statistics. If you want to see the details of the sin taxes, you can check the previous article.
On iPhone Exchange Rate and Tax Arbitrage: In which country can you buy the least expensive iPhone?
iPhones and iPads are all set to be the top gifted items during the Christmas season. (Photo: Janitors/Flickr, CC BY 2.0
ARBITRAGEURS REJOICE - Due to exchange rate and tax differences, the effective cost of your favorite gadget can vary from country to country, so if you’re looking to buy yourself or a loved one an iPhone or other similar item during your Christmas vacation, here the most attractive ‘iPhone tourism’ sites. Read on to find out more.